Residential Investment Analysis  ·  Confidential

410 W Waco St
Marfa, Texas 79843

1,344 sq ft Adobe  ·  6,750 sq ft Lot  ·  Presidio County  ·  Prepared April 1, 2026 for Brian

Asking Price
$195,000
Land Value Est.
$75–$100K
Condition
Heavy Rehab
Reno Estimate
$180–$260K
All-In Cost
$375–$455K
Finished Home Value
$400–$510K
Intent
Primary Residence
Verdict
CONDITIONAL YES
Property Photos — 410 W Waco St
Front exterior
Front — W Waco St
Rear exterior
Rear of house
Rear yard
Rear yard — large, open
Interior 1
Interior
Interior 2
Interior
Interior 3
Interior
Interior 4
Interior
Interior 5
Bathroom — exposed plumbing
Interior 6
Interior
Interior 7
Kitchen
Interior 8
Interior
Interior 9
Interior
Interior 10
Interior
Executive Summary
📌 Intent: Primary Residence
Brian wants to live here — not flip it, not rent it. This changes the analysis entirely. The question is no longer about cap rates and exit strategy. It's: can they buy and renovate this home for a reasonable all-in cost relative to what comparable finished homes sell for in Marfa? The answer leans yes, but the execution risk is real.

A 1,344 sq ft adobe home on a 6,750 sq ft lot on West Waco Street. The new exterior photos reveal important context: the roof is a mid-life hip-style shingle in better shape than expected, the rear yard is genuinely large and open (blank canvas), and the mature cedar tree is a significant asset. The seller confirmed lots in the area go for $75–100K — which means the structure itself is essentially being valued at $95–120K on top of land. You're paying fair value for the land and getting the shell nearly free. The catch: the shell needs everything.

⚡ Billy's Bottom Line — Primary Residence
This is a legitimate deal for someone who wants to live in Marfa and can handle a major renovation. Land at $75–100K + structure for $95K + $180–200K renovation = a custom home in Marfa for $370–395K all-in. Comparable renovated homes in Marfa are selling at $300–380/sqft — meaning the finished product is worth $400K–$510K. Brian would buy equity through sweat and time rather than paying market rate for a turnkey house. The risk is contractor availability and execution in a remote market. The adobe wall demo needs a structural engineer before proceeding. Wall cracks need assessment before offer.
Marfa Market Intelligence
$267K
Zillow Avg Home Value
$319
Median List $/sqft
$381
HAR Avg $/sqft (Dec '25)
$143
Redfin Avg Sold $/sqft
195
Avg Days on Market
$235
STR Avg Nightly Rate
44%
STR Occupancy
~$45K
Gross STR Revenue/yr

The massive gap between $143/sqft (sold avg) and $319–381/sqft (list/market avg) tells the whole story: Marfa is a two-tier market. Distressed/unrenovated properties trade near land value. Design-forward, renovated homes — especially those positioned for STR — command 2–3× that. The opportunity is in the spread. Marfa attracts high-income weekenders from Austin, DFW, and both coasts. 279 active STRs in a town of 1,700 people proves the demand, and the 44% occupancy at $235/night is a stable floor for a well-run property.

Why 195 Days on Market Isn't a Red Flag
Marfa has extremely thin inventory and a small buyer pool. Properties don't sit because they're unwanted — they sit because the market has very few transactions per year total. When priced and positioned correctly, the right buyer finds it. Plan for a long hold if this is a flip.
Property Condition Assessment (10-Photo Analysis)
⚠️ Bathroom — Critical
Fully stripped to studs. Copper pipes exposed and protruding from open wall cavity. Old fixtures removed. Laundry hookups present. Complete plumbing rough-in + new fixtures + tile + vanity required. No shortcuts here.
⚠️ Wall Cracks — Critical
Visible cracking in hallway walls and at door frame corners. In adobe construction, this may indicate foundation settlement or structural movement. Requires structural engineer inspection before any offer commitment. This is the deal-breaker variable.
⚠️ Kitchen — Gut Required
Old cabinets, no appliances, fragments of old linoleum over concrete. Large footprint (asset). Full gut: new cabinets, counters, appliances, plumbing, electrical circuits. Blank canvas but not cheap.
⚠️ No Central HVAC
Only window AC units visible. No ductwork present. Full mini-split system required. In Marfa's desert climate (100°F+ summers, freezing winters), functional HVAC isn't optional for an STR — it's a liability issue.
~ Roof — Better Than Expected
Exterior photos show a hip-style shingle roof that appears mid-life, not near-end. Shingles look intact with no obvious missing sections. Could potentially be repaired/sealed rather than replaced. Still get a roofer up there to assess — it could save $8–12K.
~ Windows — Replace All
Single-pane, old aluminum-frame windows throughout. Inefficient in desert climate. Full replacement needed for STR comfort and energy efficiency. New windows also dramatically change curb appeal.
~ Exterior Stucco
Front is reasonable. Rear shows significant cracking and spalling. Standard maintenance for adobe at this age. Repair + repaint, not a structural concern.
✓ Bones & Layout
Rooms are surprisingly spacious for 1,344 sqft. Appears to be 3BR + large living area. Large kitchen footprint. Rear yard has room for outdoor living (critical STR amenity). Good flow.
✓ Concrete Floors
Painted concrete throughout. This is on-trend for the Marfa aesthetic. Polish and seal them — low-cost, durable, and exactly what STR guests expect from a "design-forward" desert home.
✓ Adobe Style
White stucco exterior is quintessential Marfa. Buyers and STR guests pay a premium for authentic West Texas character. This can't be replicated in new construction. It's the asset.
Systems Cost Analysis — Plumbing · Electrical · Gas · Roof

All estimates include a 30% Marfa Remote Premium applied to labor. Marfa is 60+ miles from the nearest major contractor base (Alpine/Midland). Trade workers charge travel time and daily per diem on top of labor. This is not optional math — it's a real cost. Budget figures below are for STR-quality execution, not luxury finishes.

🔧 Plumbing System — Full Overhaul
$18,000 – $34,000

The bathroom photos show exposed copper rough-in, open wall cavities, and missing fixtures. This is not a standard repipe — it's a full rough-in job for a stripped space plus replacing all supply lines throughout the house. In adobe construction, plumbing runs often go through the walls and slab, making access more involved than stick-frame.


Whole-house repipe to PEX-A ($4.50/sqft × 1,344 + 30% remote)$7,900 – $10,500
Bathroom rough-in (toilet, shower/tub, sink, laundry)$4,500 – $8,000
Kitchen rough-in (sink, dishwasher, potential bar sink)$1,800 – $3,500
Tankless water heater (propane or electric) + installation$2,200 – $4,500
New hose bibs, shut-offs, pressure regulator$800 – $1,500
Permits + inspection (Presidio County)$400 – $800
Contingency — adobe walls make fishing pipe unpredictable$1,500 – $5,000
Subtotal — Plumbing$19,100 – $33,800
⚠️ Local resource: Call Alpine Plumbing (Alpine, TX — 26 mi away) + get a second bid from Midland/Odessa contractor willing to travel. Expect $800–1,200/day travel + lodging costs baked into their bid.
⚡ Electrical System — Panel + Rewire
$14,000 – $26,000

Based on the home's age and condition, assume the panel is undersized (likely 100A) and the wiring is old (possibly aluminum in some runs, or inadequate for modern loads). Adding 4 mini-split circuits, a kitchen with modern appliances, and STR-grade outlets (USB-C throughout, exterior lighting) means this is effectively a full electrical renovation, not just a panel swap.


200A panel upgrade (replace old box, new breakers)$2,500 – $5,500
Full rewire — supply circuits throughout 1,344 sqft$5,500 – $10,000
Dedicated circuits for mini-splits (4 units × 240V)$1,200 – $2,400
Kitchen dedicated circuits (20A × 2 for appliances)$600 – $1,000
GFCI outlets (bathroom, kitchen, exterior — code required)$400 – $800
STR extras: USB outlets, smart switch wiring, exterior lighting$1,500 – $3,000
Smoke + CO detectors (code required for STR permit)$300 – $600
Permits + electrical inspection (required for STR)$500 – $1,000
30% remote labor premiumincluded above
Subtotal — Electrical$12,500 – $24,300
⚠️ Licensed electrician likely sourced from Midland or El Paso. Factor travel. Alternatively, contact Marfa Electric (local) — they may do residential work or refer you to trusted contractors.
🔥 Gas System — Propane (Most Likely)
$3,500 – $9,000

Marfa does have some natural gas infrastructure via the West Texas Gas system, but service availability varies by block and many properties in older residential areas are on propane. From the photos, no gas meter is visible on the exterior — this property may currently be all-electric or have had propane tanks removed. Assume propane system installation for planning purposes.


250-gallon propane tank (above-ground, standard for residential)$800 – $2,000
Interior gas line rough-in (kitchen, water heater, optional dryer)$1,200 – $2,800
Appliance hookups + pressure testing$400 – $800
Permits + gas inspection$300 – $600
First propane fill (~150 gallons @ ~$2.80/gal West TX)$400 – $500
30% remote labor premiumincluded above
Subtotal — Gas (Propane)$3,100 – $6,700
💡 Option: If natural gas is available on W Waco St, connection fee is $500–2,000 but eliminates propane tank/delivery dependency. Verify with West Texas Gas Co. before committing to propane.
🏠 Roof — Full Replacement Recommended
$9,500 – $17,000

Adobe homes in Marfa traditionally use flat or low-slope roofs, but the photos show a conventional pitched asphalt shingle roof — common on modified adobe homes. The shingles appear aged with potential granule loss. Given the full renovation scope, replacing the roof before interior work is the smart sequence (you don't want a leaking roof over a finished kitchen). For a desert climate, seriously consider a metal roof — higher upfront cost, 40+ year lifespan, better heat reflection, preferred by insurance companies.


Option A — Asphalt Shingle Replacement

Tear-off existing shingles ($1.50–2.50/sqft × ~1,400 roof sqft)$2,100 – $3,500
Inspect/replace decking if damaged (assume 20% replacement)$800 – $2,000
30-yr architectural shingle install ($5.39/sqft × ~1,400 sqft)$7,546 base
30% remote premium on labor+$2,264
Flashing, drip edge, ridge cap, underlayment$600 – $1,200
Option A Total — Asphalt Shingle$9,500 – $14,000

Option B — Standing Seam Metal Roof (Recommended for STR)

Metal roof installed (~$10–14/sqft × 1,400 sqft)$14,000 – $19,600
30% remote premium+$4,200 – $5,880
Tear-off + prep$2,100 – $3,500
Option B Total — Metal Roof$13,500 – $22,000
💡 Metal roof recommendation: In Marfa's climate (extreme UV, hail exposure, temp swings), metal pays for itself in 10 years through energy savings and zero maintenance. For a STR, the "set and forget" math is compelling. Insurance companies also offer discounts.
Systems Summary — Total Mechanical Budget
Plumbing (full overhaul)$19,000 – $34,000
Electrical (panel + rewire + STR circuits)$12,500 – $24,300
Gas (propane system)$3,100 – $6,700
Roof (asphalt option)$9,500 – $14,000
Total Mechanical Systems$44,100 – $79,000

Midpoint: ~$60,000 for all mechanical systems. This is the number to verify with local contractors FIRST — it drives the viability of the entire deal.

⚠️ Adobe Wall Demolition — Critical Analysis
🚨 READ THIS BEFORE AGREEING TO DEMO THAT WALL

Adobe walls are inherently load-bearing. Unlike stick-frame construction where you can identify non-structural partition walls, adobe homes are designed so that the walls themselves carry the roof load directly into the foundation. There are no "partition walls" in the traditional sense — every adobe wall may be structural.

Removing an interior adobe wall without proper structural engineering and beam installation can result in catastrophic roof failure. This is not a DIY or "let's see what happens" situation. Texas building codes require a structural engineer's sign-off for any load-bearing wall modification.

Adobe Wall Demo — Cost Estimate
$9,000 – $28,000

Cost varies enormously based on whether the wall is load-bearing (requires structural steel/beam installation) or a rare non-bearing adobe partition.


Structural engineer assessment + drawings (mandatory)$1,500 – $3,500
Permit for structural modification$500 – $1,500
Adobe demo — manual labor (adobe is dense, dusty, heavy)$2,000 – $5,000
Debris removal (adobe bricks weigh ~30 lbs each)$500 – $1,500
IF LOAD-BEARING: Steel beam + posts + header installation$4,500 – $16,000
Stucco repair at demo junction (interior + exterior)$1,500 – $3,500
Subtotal — Wall Demo (load-bearing scenario)$10,500 – $31,000
⚠️ IMPORTANT: Get the structural engineer in BEFORE finalizing the renovation budget. If the beam needed to replace the load path is large (which it may be given adobe mass), you could be looking at $15,000–20,000 just for the structural work. This alone could swing the deal math materially.
Complete Renovation Budget — All-In

STR-quality execution. Includes mechanical systems above plus cosmetic renovation, HVAC, and furnishing.

Category Low High
⚠️ MECHANICAL SYSTEMS
Plumbing (full rough-in + repipe)$19,000$34,000
Electrical (panel + rewire + circuits)$12,500$24,300
Gas / Propane system$3,100$6,700
Roof replacement$9,500$17,000
HVAC — 4-zone mini-split system$14,000$22,000
COSMETIC RENOVATION
Bathroom — full gut + new tile + fixtures + vanity$18,000$30,000
Kitchen — cabinets, counters, appliances, backsplash$25,000$42,000
Floors — polish/seal concrete + bath tile$5,000$10,000
Windows — full replacement (7–9 units)$9,000$16,000
Interior paint + drywall + door hardware$4,500$8,000
Exterior stucco repair + paint$6,000$12,000
Adobe wall demo (if proceeding)$10,500$31,000
Outdoor living — patio, string lights, seating, landscaping$5,000$12,000
STR LAUNCH
Furnishing + staging (full house, STR-quality)$18,000$32,000
STR permit, HOT setup, insurance year 1$4,500$6,000
OVERHEAD
Permits + inspections (city + county)$3,000$6,000
Structural engineer (wall cracks + wall demo)$2,500$5,500
Contingency — 15% of hard costs (Marfa adds unpredictability)$22,000$42,000
TOTAL RENOVATION $190,600 $356,500
Midpoint estimate ~$240,000
Market Comps — Marfa Pricing Context

Direct MLS comps for this specific address are limited due to Marfa's thin transaction volume. Using market-wide data to establish ARV range.

Property / Reference Sqft Condition $/Sqft Implied Value @ 1,344 sqft
410 W Waco St (Subject) 1,344 Distressed / Heavy Rehab $145 (ask) $195,000 (ask)
Redfin — Avg Sold Price/sqft, Marfa varies All conditions blended $143 $192,192
Zillow — Avg Home Value, Marfa varies All conditions ~$199 $267,626
Movoto — Median List Price/sqft varies Active listings $319 $428,736
HAR.com — Avg Marfa (Dec 2025) varies Skewed toward renovated $381 $512,064
Target ARV — Quality Renovated STR 1,344 Fully renovated, STR-optimized $300–$380 $403,200 – $510,720
ARV Context
The wide spread ($143 to $381/sqft) is the Marfa two-tier market in action. A distressed shell sells like a distressed shell. A beautifully renovated, design-forward property with professional photos and STR positioning sells in the $300–400/sqft range. Brian's target should be $325–350/sqft ARV = $437K–$470K for a well-executed renovation. Exceptional execution with high-end finishes could push $400+/sqft.
Deal Math at $195,000 Ask — Primary Residence
Primary Residence Framing
Since Brian wants to live here, the math is different. The question is: what does it cost to own a custom-renovated home in Marfa vs. buying a turnkey one? Turnkey renovated homes in Marfa sell at $300–380/sqft = $403K–$510K for this size. Brian's path: buy the shell, renovate it himself (over time), and end up with a custom home for $375–420K all-in. That's at or below market value for finished product, plus he gets exactly what he wants.

Scenario A — Lean Reno (STR Hold)

Purchase Price$195,000
Renovation$195,000
Closing Costs (3%)$5,850
All-In Cost$395,850
ARV (conservative, $305/sqft)$409,920
Equity at Completion+$14,070
STR Net Income / Year~$20,250
Cash-on-Cash (all-in)5.1%
✓ Viable if renovation is tightly managed and quality is strong enough to hit $300+ ARV

Scenario B — Full Reno (STR Hold)

Purchase Price$195,000
Renovation (midpoint + wall demo)$240,000
Closing Costs (3%)$5,850
All-In Cost$440,850
ARV (mid, $340/sqft)$456,960
Equity at Completion+$16,110
STR Net Income / Year~$20,250
Cash-on-Cash (all-in)4.6%
~ Marginal equity but STR income is the real return. Long-term hold play.

Scenario C — Phase the Renovation

Purchase + Closing$201,000
Phase 1: Make habitable (mechanicals + bath + kitchen basics)$90,000
Phase 2: Finish out over 2–3 years$100,000
Total All-In$391,000
Finished Home Value ($320/sqft)$429,780
Equity+$38,780
✓ Best option for primary residence. Spreads cash outlay, lets Brian customize each phase to taste.

Scenario D — Negotiate to $165K

Purchase Price (negotiated)$165,000
Full renovation$215,000
Closing Costs$4,950
All-In Cost$384,950
Finished Home Value ($340/sqft)$456,960
Instant Equity+$72,010
✓ Best deal. Use wall cracks + stripped condition to justify $165–175K counteroffer. Fully defensible.

Primary Residence — Buy vs. Build vs. This Property

OptionEst. Cost to Own a Home in Marfa
Buy turnkey renovated Marfa home ($340/sqft, 1,344 sqft)$456,960
New construction in Marfa ($200–250/sqft build + land $100K)$369K–$436K
This property — $195K ask + $215K renovation$410,000
This property — negotiate to $165K + $215K renovation$380,000
Brian's savings vs. buying turnkey (at negotiated price)~$77,000

Annual ownership costs (primary residence): Property taxes ~$2,100 · Homeowners insurance ~$2,400 · Utilities ~$5,400 · Maintenance reserve ~$3,500 = ~$13,400/year

Risk Register
RiskLevelMitigation
Wall cracks — foundation/structural HIGH Hire structural engineer before committing to full purchase price. If foundation issues found, negotiate hard or walk away.
Adobe wall demo going wrong HIGH Mandatory structural engineer drawings + permit. No exceptions. Do not let a contractor demo without signed-off plans.
Contractor cost overrun (Marfa remoteness) HIGH Get 3 bids minimum. Require fixed-price contracts where possible. Budget 15% contingency minimum. Visit site during work.
Market liquidity — can't exit quickly MED Plan for 12–24 month hold minimum. This is not a quick-flip market. Enter with long-term intent or don't enter at all.
STR saturation (279 competitors) MED Design quality is the differentiator. Top-10% properties in Marfa get 60%+ occupancy; bottom-30% sit empty. Invest in good design and photography.
STR regulatory tightening MED Marfa already has STR ordinance (not a ban risk). 20% of housing stock is STR — political will to ban is low. But rules may tighten. Get permit and comply from day 1.
Marfa demand fundamentals LOW Chinati Foundation, Donald Judd legacy, arts community — this is durable. Not a fad market. High-income visitors are loyal to Marfa as a destination.
Property taxes LOW Presidio County has very low property taxes. Estimated $2,000–2,500/year on this property. Minimal carry cost.
Recommendation & Action Plan
Verdict — Conditional Buy at Negotiated Price

The deal can work — but don't pay $195K as-is without more information. The wall cracks are a material unknown that could swing this deal by $20–50K. The proposed adobe wall demo is an additional unknown that needs structural engineering before it can be budgeted. The right move is: (1) get a structural engineer in, (2) get 2–3 contractor bids, (3) use those findings to negotiate the price down to $165–175K. At that entry point with a $200–220K renovation, you get $50–70K in equity at completion and $20K/year in net STR income. That's a real return.

Pre-Offer Checklist

  • Hire structural engineer — inspect wall cracks AND determine if proposed demo wall is load-bearing. Cost: $1,500–3,500. Non-negotiable.
  • Get 2–3 contractor bids for plumbing + electrical + roof. Contact Alpine-area tradespeople. Compare to Midland/Odessa contractors willing to travel.
  • Verify: Is natural gas available on W Waco St? (Call West Texas Gas Co.) If yes, saves $3,000+ on propane infrastructure.
  • Pull Presidio County appraisal records to confirm legal description, lot dimensions, and any liens.
  • Order title search and survey.
  • Walk the property at different times of day — check how it sits relative to neighbors, parking, street noise.
  • Talk to a Marfa-based STR operator or property manager — ask what nightly rates they're actually getting for comparable properties right now.
  • Negotiate. The ask is $195K for a house with exposed pipes and wall cracks. $165–175K is defensible. Use the structural report as leverage.